Institution: It is expected that the PC market in China will resume growth in the second half of 2025. IDC, an international data company, issued a document saying that the overall PC market in China is expected to improve in 2025, and the shipment volume will drop slightly by 0.2% compared with that in 2024. Among them, the first half of 2025 will be affected by the early release of demand at the end of 2024, and the expected shipment volume is still negative, down 4.2% year-on-year; In the second half of 2025, it will improve as a whole, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.0%.The REIT of AVIC E-commerce warehousing and logistics will be put on sale to public investors today. According to the announcement issued by AVIC Fund, on December 13th, the closed infrastructure securities investment fund of AVIC E-commerce warehousing and logistics (hereinafter referred to as "AVIC E-commerce warehousing and logistics REIT", fund code: 508078) will be put on sale to public investors. The fundraising period will be from December 13th to 19th, and it will be issued for 5 working days.CICC: Depleting inventories to eliminate excess supply is still the main direction. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. In terms of real estate, the meeting will "continue to push the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" as the primary task of risk prevention. The research department of CICC believes that destocking to eliminate excess supply is still the main direction. First, control the supply of new land; second, optimize the supply structure of existing land and commercial housing; it is expected that the supply optimization policies such as land ticket, land exchange and commercial housing reform will be further promoted; third, dispose of existing commercial housing; it is expected that the efforts to store unsold commercial housing and existing second-hand housing for affordable housing will be increased; fourth, intensify the implementation of the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses.
Afternoon comment: index adjustment The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.49% in half a day. Bean bag concept stocks were strong in early trading, and the index was collectively adjusted in early trading. The three major stock indexes all fell by more than 1%. In terms of sectors, the concept stocks of bean bags were strong in early trading, and the collective daily limit of three-dimensional communication, Beiwei Technology, Global Printing, and Zhewen Internet; The concept of ice and snow industry continued its upward trend. Jingxue energy-saving 20cm daily limit, iceberg cold and hot, snowman shares and other daily limit closures; The game e-sports sector is active, and the daily limit of Zhewen Internet and Electric Soul Network is up; Real estate stocks continued to adjust, and Hefei Urban Construction and Gorgeous Family were among the top losers. Food, liquor and other consumer sectors fell into a callback, and Yiming food fell to a limit; Insurance stocks weakened collectively, led by China Life Insurance. Overall, individual stocks showed a general decline trend, with more than 4,100 stocks falling. On the disk, the Aauto Quicker concept, short play games and cultural media sectors were among the top gainers, while the insurance, liquor and real estate sectors were among the top losers.Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.Reuters opinion polls show that 94% of economists said that the tariffs of US President-elect Trump will have a negative or some negative impact on the Japanese economy; 51 of 52 economists said that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to at least 0.50% before the end of March; 58% of analysts said that the Bank of Japan will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25% in December, compared with 44% in November; The salary increase in Japan's labor negotiations in the next fiscal year is 4.7%, which is lower than the median forecast of 5.1% in this fiscal year.
The REIT of AVIC E-commerce warehousing and logistics will be put on sale to public investors today. According to the announcement issued by AVIC Fund, on December 13th, the closed infrastructure securities investment fund of AVIC E-commerce warehousing and logistics (hereinafter referred to as "AVIC E-commerce warehousing and logistics REIT", fund code: 508078) will be put on sale to public investors. The fundraising period will be from December 13th to 19th, and it will be issued for 5 working days.The institutional deposits of Ping An Bank exceeded 400 billion yuan. At the beginning of this year, Ping An Bank successfully won the bid for the qualification of central treasury centralized payment agent bank. Interface journalists learned from the recent Digital Intelligence Government Conference held by the bank that up to now, Ping An Bank has more than 1,000 core government qualifications and institutional deposits have exceeded 400 billion yuan. At the conference, the bank officially released the "Safe and Intelligent Government Affairs" platform, and signed general-to-general partnership agreements with the first batch of 10 institutional business partners, including Booz Software, Shenyue Software and Guangdong Bankruptcy Administrators Association.Beijing officially launched the online game boutique publishing project. At the 2024 China Game Industry Annual Conference held today, Zhai Degang, deputy director of the Propaganda Department of Beijing Municipal Committee and director of Beijing Press and Publication Bureau, said that Beijing Press and Publication Bureau would organize the implementation of the online game boutique publishing project to guide and drive the high-quality development of Beijing's game industry. It is reported that the online game boutique publishing project will focus on five key directions: spreading positive mainstream values, carrying forward the spirit of Chinese culture, showing the style of the capital era, highlighting the vitality of scientific and technological innovation, and having the potential for international communication. Five supporting mechanisms including priority recommendation, whole-process incubation, copyright protection, platform service and talent guarantee mechanism will be implemented. The works selected for the project will be included in the Beijing online game key selection database, and priority will be given to the national-level promotion and selection projects, and incentives will be given.
Strategy guide
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide
12-14